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For a brief period, Trump appeared to adopt a resolute approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "serious repercussions" last August in case Putin continued blocking peace talks, he eventually imposed substantial restrictions on Russia's primary oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously impacted Putin's capability to finance his aggression in the region.

Yet, via his latest comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or European input, he has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's proposal would effectively reward Putin for attacking Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative actually weaken that same autonomy. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his business past, Trump persists to view the war as a basic territorial dispute, like giving Putin a section of Ukraine's territory will appease the president. However, Russia's invasion is not merely about dominating a damaged swath of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and Putin's apparent desire to destroy it so it no longer serves as an enticing model for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that his deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Giveaways

While keeping in place the already separated Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the proposal would require the nation to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unable to capture in more than a ten years of conflict, this concession would render Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously undermined.

This region is the site of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the entrenched protective structures that are a critical barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed route to Kyiv if he eventually opt to restart the hostilities.

Military Limitations

Then, in a step that would enable additional hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its armed forces from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of 600,000. Notably, Trump's proposal sets no similar limits on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's chosen by the people leadership as radicals, the proposal asserts: "Any Nazi ideology and actions must be condemned and banned." Apparently to highlight this element, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. At the same time, Trump sets no requirement that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by conducting votes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

To be sure, the initiative has the Russian Federation promise not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But considering that Putin has breached similar accords in the past – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in return for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of captured territory in the region to Ukrainian control – how should anyone believe Russia on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western defense commitments. While the proposal threatens a "strong coordinated defense action" should Russia restart its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong defense commitments", the details range from unclear to troubling. The plan would not just prevent Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude member states from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Russia from replenishing his reduced troops, restocking, and reinvading.

World Reaction

An additional parallel deal reportedly would grant the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. Yet unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary protection against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the dedication of alliance members, such as Trump, to respond with force to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not