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Entering the planet's most popular art institution in the middle of the day, taking eight items of invaluable historical gems and vanishing into the city traffic on humble scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, executed for international notoriety and subsequent movie adaptations.

Experts who study trends in global cultural theft, however, see Sunday morning’s heist at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the latest in a string of quick-hit thefts centered more on the monetary worth of precious stones or metals than the historical importance, continuing a trend that has emerged over the last ten years in Europe, the UK and the US. The venue, they suggest, would have been of lesser importance to the criminals.

“One might wonder why thieves who want to steal valuable jewellery are breaking into a globally renowned museum rather than a Cartier store,” said Christopher A Marinello. “The answer is simple: it’s because these days a Cartier store is better protected.”

A series of aggressive retail store thefts mean that many stores have strengthened their protection in the past few years, with security personnel on their premises and merchandise no longer shown overnight. Museums, meanwhile, look vulnerable, partly because of the inherent factor of being accessible institutions in historic buildings, and also the financial situation in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, governments across the world have cut back on police and the culture sector,” said Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it shows how vulnerable our museums have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the objects – featuring jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the crown of a historical figure featuring nearly 2,000 diamonds and a extremely expensive diadem once possessed by Napoleon III’s wife that the thieves dropped by the roadside on their way out – has naturally been compared with the historical theft of the Mona Lisa from the same museum, performed by the Italian handyman the thief.

More relevant points of reference may be the 2019 burglary of jewellery from a German institution worth over millions, the taking of a £4.75m valuable object from a UK landmark the that year, the recent robbery of a large gold coin from a European museum or even a series of robberies of collector items from American institutions.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as quickly as possible.”

If the items were to stay whole, specialists say, the criminals would struggle to sell them. “There’s no way to sell something as immediately identifiable as the museum's gems on the legal marketplace”, commented Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They would be immediately recognised, especially given the Ministry of Culture has released images of the pieces. Even a individual buyer or an auction house would want to see documentation confirming proper ownership before touching such remarkable pieces.”

In the past, museums were often hesitant to go public about the disappearance of well-known works of art and would stay silent out of shame. These days, as art thefts are more widely publicised, the keeping and sale of stolen art is dangerous for any lawbreaker.

“If you steal a famous painting, it has to remain intact or it becomes valueless, and you have to devise a plan to keep it in hiding, perhaps by moving it among dangerous individuals,” noted Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an partner informing authorities to collect a reward.”

For comparable factors, an investigator said it was vanishingly unlikely that the robbery had been ordered. “Stolen to order is something from films,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the media. If you buy this, if you are apprehended, you end up in prison. You cannot show it to your acquaintances, you cannot bequeath it to your children.”

Altering stolen works by dismantling or reshaping does lower the worth. When it comes to gems, it also comes with considerable risk because contemporary methods give gems a bigger and lighter appearance, and antique-cut stones would either attract notice or reduce value for a coverup.

Crucially, however, melting down or re-cutting eliminates the proof of the theft. “My guess is that the Louvre thieves will try to take the stolen goods to places with gem knowledge like a country, another nation or even as nearby as Antwerp, and locate an expert to cut out the gems,” said Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about security measures at the museum, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be released next month pointing out “considerable” and “ongoing” slow progress in modernizing equipment and observing that surveillance were missing in many rooms. But specialists say displaying valuable objects in older structures with a steady stream of visitors comes with risks that are impossible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are much harder to protect,” said Erin Thompson. “They often have nice big street-facing windows that allows for criminals to escape, and there may be building protection statutes in place that mean you can’t fit them with secure windows.”

The most solid protective measures for buildings should be designed “as a stronghold”, noted a security advisor. “It should include multiple levels to repel intruders.”

Contemporary structures are fitted with state-of-the-art external CCTV cameras or integrated seismic detectors that raise alarm about a smashed window in real time, but old museums may be reluctant to alter their appearance. Detection devices can be difficult to fit to stuccoed ceilings. Sensors may also have to be turned off during the daytime as crowds stomp through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which took place between 9.30am and 9.40am in Paris, was common of modern robberies, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. It’s often when guards rotate and before the museum is crowded who effectively act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have thrown up new gadgets that can notify more quickly and efficiently, but it has also provided robbers new tools with which to bypass security measures. In Paris, the thieves accessed the museum’s upper level with a mobile equipment and breached a glass pane with a electric tool.

An author said the conversation in the country about the 232-year-old structure had primarily focused on visitor management in the past decade, and less on protection.

The museum has an on-site team of about fifty full-time firefighters, but their mission is mainly to safeguard the artworks from blazes and water damage. “There isn't a rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the safety of the Louvre all depends on political will and money, and currently the nation lacks sufficient resources.”