Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.