Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The typical number of everyday homicides monthly in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh administrative figures. However, public safety specialists have cautioned that murder figures may not signal enhanced national security.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in November compared with almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September of last year. This data was shared by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded over these months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that last month the smallest number of murders were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's highly military operations to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an seemingly steeper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

But, security researchers cautioned that relying on murder numbers to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is notably true given the rise in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it may obscure periods when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico remains beset by high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to build a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst remarked.