Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
